Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 8.417007e-05 0.000100 0.000117 0.000137 0.000158 0.000182 0.000208
2025-01-19 6.444680e-05 0.000085 0.000109 0.000137 0.000171 0.000208 0.000252
2025-01-26 5.008561e-05 0.000072 0.000098 0.000131 0.000171 0.000217 0.000273
2025-02-02 4.199331e-05 0.000065 0.000095 0.000133 0.000180 0.000237 0.000307
2025-02-09 3.529290e-05 0.000059 0.000090 0.000132 0.000186 0.000250 0.000332
2025-02-16 3.136047e-05 0.000056 0.000090 0.000136 0.000197 0.000271 0.000367
2025-02-23 2.740268e-05 0.000052 0.000088 0.000138 0.000204 0.000287 0.000395
2025-03-02 2.179909e-05 0.000046 0.000081 0.000132 0.000202 0.000291 0.000409
2025-03-09 1.762449e-05 0.000040 0.000075 0.000128 0.000202 0.000296 0.000423
2025-03-16 1.482435e-05 0.000037 0.000072 0.000127 0.000205 0.000306 0.000444
2025-03-23 1.281921e-05 0.000034 0.000070 0.000127 0.000210 0.000319 0.000468
2025-03-30 1.073257e-05 0.000031 0.000067 0.000126 0.000213 0.000329 0.000488
2025-04-06 8.023538e-06 0.000027 0.000062 0.000122 0.000212 0.000334 0.000505
2025-04-13 6.505208e-06 0.000025 0.000060 0.000123 0.000218 0.000350 0.000536
2025-04-20 4.546910e-06 0.000021 0.000055 0.000117 0.000215 0.000352 0.000548
2025-04-27 3.702717e-06 0.000019 0.000054 0.000118 0.000222 0.000369 0.000580
2025-05-04 2.831391e-06 0.000017 0.000052 0.000118 0.000226 0.000380 0.000605
2025-05-11 2.437362e-06 0.000017 0.000052 0.000122 0.000236 0.000402 0.000645
2025-05-18 1.946856e-06 0.000016 0.000051 0.000123 0.000243 0.000418 0.000677
2025-05-25 1.217627e-06 0.000013 0.000047 0.000118 0.000239 0.000419 0.000687
2025-06-01 7.494139e-07 0.000011 0.000043 0.000114 0.000237 0.000423 0.000701
2025-06-08 4.941539e-07 0.000010 0.000041 0.000113 0.000240 0.000433 0.000724
2025-06-15 3.385901e-07 0.000009 0.000040 0.000113 0.000245 0.000447 0.000753